Energy Deals Newsbreak Latam | Ed. #43

Big-ticket M&A deals have yet to land in the region, but strategic moves keep stacking up like chess pieces poised for checkmate.

Solar, wind and lithium continue to draw bets, with Argentina, Brazil and Mexico redefining their positions on the regional board. While some markets race ahead in the energy transition, others struggle to keep pace amid a challenging macro backdrop.

This edition is packed with standout stories, an up-to-the-minute view of the LatAm landscape and headline-grabbing deals.

Here are a few highlights from the fortnight:

• Diamante Energia will acquire 100% of the 720 MW Pecém coal plant in Ceará for BRL 1 bn, buying out EDP and Mercurio Asset. The package includes licensed gas-fired projects that Diamante intends to bid with in upcoming capacity auctions

• Luz del Sur has agreed to buy 100% of Energía Renovable del Sur, owner of the 135.7 MW San Juan de Marcona wind farm in Ica, for up to USDm 253 plus customary cash adjustments

• CADE has cleared Vestas’ takeover of 10 greenfield wind projects in Pedra Preta and Jandaíra, Rio Grande do Norte, from Eneva; the price tag was not disclosed

Good reading!

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How AI agents are reshaping M&A from sourcing to diligence: Examples and case studies

Artificial intelligence (AI) agents have huge potential to make deal processes faster and more efficient. But how do you separate the tangible use cases from the marketing hype?

On July 16, we're hosting a webinar in association with Ideals and Comparables.AI to look at how dealmakers are using AI to gain a competitive advantage and how these use cases will develop in 2026.

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M&A Renewables

1. CADE cleared the sale of Raízen’s Leme plant for BRLm 425; the deal was announced in May

2. EDF bought 200 MW of greenfield solar projects from Salus FIP (Casa dos Ventos); terms were not disclosed, and the projects will be built in Bahia.

3. Vestas acquired 10 greenfield wind projects from Eneva in Rio Grande do Norte; value undisclosed.

4. Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio bought a stake in the Santa Tereza 09 project (RN); volume and price were not disclosed

5. Luz del Sur signed an agreement to buy the San Juan de Marcona wind farm

M&A Energy

1. Oil-and-lubricants reseller Repelub was acquired by Risel Combustíveis (Grupo Vibra) for BRLm 75

2. Copa Energia is buying 36% of GNLink (Lorinvest’s LNG unit); the price exceeds BRLm 100, according to Copa’s CEO

3. Diamante Energia will acquire 100% of the 720 MW Pecém coal plant (CE) for BRL 1 bn from EDP and Mercurio Asset

4. LipiAndes, through its subsidiary Limagas Natural, acquired 70% of the Ecuadorian company Sycar

5. Edenor announced the purchase of shares in a lithium mining company in Catamarca

6. Ecoligo acquires nine solar plants in Chile, totaling 3 MWp

7. Promotora Mexcap, through its infrastructure fund XINFRA, acquired the Mexico-based Huinalá Electric Generating Plant

Investment & Financing Renewables

1. AXS Energia raised BRLm 550 from AZ Quest

2. Raízen returned to the bond market with a USDm 750 issue to extend its debt profile

3. Eneva secured new BRLm 500 financing for the Azulão project

4. In Colombia, off-grid photovoltaic systems to be installed in Wayuu indigenous communities with a USDm 13 investment

5. GreenYellow and Davivienda close EURm 7.8 financing for 10.9 MWp solar plant in Colombia

6. EPM to invest COP 1 bn to develop hydroelectric power generation projects

7. CAF grants EURm 25 to Cox to promote energy transition projects in Latin America and the Caribbean

8. Zelestra has achieved financial close of USDm 282 for the Aurora hybrid solar storage project in Chile

Investment & Financing Energy

1. Calidda to receive USDm 500 loan from CAF to expand its natural gas network in Lima and Callao

2. Edesur obtains syndicated loan to finance investments in physical assets and capital goods

3. Exar's mining project in Argentina receives USDm 100 loan from Chinese bank

4. Balam units secure up to USDm 15 for solar projects in Mexico

Announced/Not confirmed

1. Corn-ethanol producer Inpasa is building a stake in Vibra; sources say it has been buying roughly BRLm 30 per day and already holds 3% of the shares as part of its push into distribution

2. Cosan signed an MoU to study acquiring Bahia-based miner Bamin, currently controlled by a Kazakh company; Bamin carries an estimated USD 5.5 bn debt

Market whispers

Brazil

1. Eleven years after CADE ruled that CSN’s stake in Usiminas harms competition, the watchdog has lost patience and given CSN 60 days to present a divestment plan

2. Low returns are pushing companies to abandon renewable-generation projects in Brazil

3. Engie’s CFO, Eduardo Takamori Guiyotoku, resigned to take the same post at a subsidiary

4. Rede D’Or sealed the sector’s largest self-generation contract with China’s CGN; the 165 MW Alagoinha Solar Complex was inaugurated this week

LATAM

1. Petroperu seeks partner for Amazon block, is in talks with five companies

2. TotalEnergies received bids for oil assets in Vaca Muerta

3. Chile's Colbún enters the bidding for Acciona's wind power plants for EURm 600

4. New creditors in the U.S. claim YPF shares as a form of debt collection for Argentina's default debts

5. Transmission delays jeopardize growth of photovoltaic projects in Colombia

6. Asoenergía asked Ecopetrol for clear accounts of its controlled gas production

7. Failure to take advantage of renewable energy costs Latin America nearly USD 7 bn each year

8. Superservicios considers new measures against companies that bought gas imported into Colombia

9. Another ruling orders Argentina to hand over YPF shares sued by Bainbridge fund

10. Former YPF president rejects US judge's ruling against Argentina

11. Milei announces that Argentina will appeal NY judge's ruling ordering the State to hand over its 51% stake in YPF

12. Interchile was accused before the SEC by the Electricity Coordinator, due to repeated failures during the mega blackout that affected Chile

13. AES Andes, embroiled in controversy over its green hydrogen mega-project INNA, asked for more time to answer tough objections

14. The B side of the shale boom: Añelo's SMEs declare production emergency due to the paralysis in Vaca Muerta

15. PwC warns of doubts about Petroperu's operational continuity after reviewing its audited financial statements

16. Pemex, YPF and EPM among Latin America's most liquidity-risky companies, according to Moody's

17. Argentina without gas: cold wave generates crisis in the system and warns of possible impact on exports to Chile

18. Argentina normalizes gas transportation and lifts restrictions on industries after cold snap crisis

19. In the midst of the controversial lawsuit, YPF promises something "unprecedented" for its shareholders: dividends

20. Ecopetrol and Dian in dispute over VAT payment on fuel imports

21. Ecuador acknowledges damage to oil exports due to suspension of two oil pipelines

22. Luz del Sur denounced that the Municipality of Lima removed public lighting poles without prior notice

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From cash crunch to power punch: Who wins Latin America’s Q3 showdown?

Q3 is just beginning, and for many dealmakers this quarter could prove decisive. July opens on the heels of a pull-back in both M&A and venture-capital activity. In a world strained by geopolitical tension and mounting economic pressure, what looks like a difficult scenario may actually hide opportunity. Yet, common challenges converge.

Anyone steering deals through the Q3 2025 must track several trends, starting with scarcer venture capital, stretched valuations, and the return of old ghosts haunting the region’s main markets.

Yet before measuring the fallout in Energy, it helps to scan a few broader indicators.

Venture capital is turning sharply selective

Founders should brace for longer fundraising cycles and less favorable terms (especially beyond Series B) making strong operating metrics and clear exit paths essential. What feels challenging for entrepreneurs is largely defensive positioning by investors.

PitchBook’s latest data (cited by Bloomberg) show just 335 transactions worth USD 2.9 bn in H1 2025, which leaves a somewhat discouraging projection. At the current pace, the year would close with the fewest deals since 2016, before the venture capital boom in the region.

Round dynamics point to an investor-friendly market

To understand this shift, look at deal anatomy: the median time between rounds has lengthened since the 2021 peak, while valuation step-ups are receding (especially in late-stage and venture-growth deals) signaling sharper price discipline.

PitchBook’s VC Dealmaking Indicator shows that, as speed and step-ups fall, three protective clauses are on the rise:

1. Cumulative dividends: unpaid dividends pile up until redemption or liquidation.

2. Liquidation participation: investors recoup their capital (sometimes a multiple) before other shareholders at exit.

3. Higher equity stakes: bigger slices today cushion future dilution.

The report debuts the startup funding rate, which compares the number of startups hunting capital with the actual volume of deals:

• Early stage: the long-term average is 3.8×, only one in four startups lands a round.

• Later stages: the “capital traffic jam” worsens. Fewer deals, slower step-ups, and shrinking late-stage checks show investors seeking early-stage safety while IPO exits stay scarce. Mature startups feel the squeeze most when public-market windows close.
  
  

Together, these conditions reflect a market where investors wield greater bargaining power and seek to buffer risk amid low liquidity or more conservative valuations.

Challenges and opportunities in Latin America’s energy arena

M&A and venture-capital data signal a more conservative, harder-to-scale global landscape. As risk capital itself tightens, the energy sector feels the squeeze, forcing dealmakers to weigh every next move with extra care. Even segments once viewed as safe wildcards (like solar) now carry an intimidating edge, especially in Brazil.

At first glance, the market still shows its opportunities. Forbes forecasts 13% solar-capacity growth in Latin America by end-2025, propelled by Chinese tech adoption and investor appetite. Notable standouts include:

• Chile: now generates 20%+ of its electricity from solar.

• Brazil: the region’s heavyweight, expanding solar capacity at 15%+ a year.

• Mexico: has reached 3.33 GW of distributed solar, up 700 MW in 2025 alone.

A new GlobeNewswire report, “Latin America and Caribbean Energy Transition 2025”, also highlights the growing role of solar energy in the region and positions wind as the second most relevant source within the energy matrix, consolidating its place in the transition to a more diversified and resilient model.

Brazil drinks deepest from these opportunities, yet not without strain.

Brazil: dominant but constrained

Brazil remains at the top of the region. It is the dominant market in terms of energy transaction volume; however, The Rio Times records a 1% dip in deal count and a 25% slide in capital raised. Add on this the presence of an old nemesis, the curtailment:

• Renewable curtailment could jump 300% by 2035, shaving off 8% of national output and up to 11% in the Northeast.

• Even with 76 GW of new capacity planned, transmission bottlenecks linger; marquee lines like the Graça Aranha–Silvânia bipole won’t fully stem rising revenue loss and shelved projects.

Thus Brazil’s solar boom risks being overshadowed by structural snags. And, actually, this is already pushing companies to abandon renewable-generation projects in Brazil. Until 2035, the country's power grid is expected to not support renewable expansion.

In this scenario, the most attractive assets are those with resilient contracts and minimal curtailment exposure.

Fiscal strain, regulatory fatigue (plus hungry sharks)

Brazil also faces fiscal pressure and regulatory fatigue. While its main market wrestles with hurdles, predators smell blood.

IProfessionals reveal that Argentina has become the cycle’s big shark: 19% more deals and 105% more capital, led by energy acquisitions. Vaca Muerta races toward record shale output, potentially doubling by 2030 if pipelines and ports unlock.

Meanwhile, lithium stays hot even as overall M&A cools. El Economista notes transactions linked to minerals such as lithium remain stable in ticket size.

• It’s not Brazil: other markets are heating up. Mexico eyes Sonora as a lithium hub, though questions remain; can it stand up the needed infrastructure and rules before the global window closes?

The key question is whether it will arrive in time:

1. Will Mexico be able to develop the necessary infrastructure and regulatory frameworks before the global lithium window closes?

2. Will Argentina consolidate as a leader or is it just for a moment?

3. Will Brazil know how to adapt to its new reality and maintain leadership amid regulatory fatigue and infraestructure challenges?

Who will best seize this transitional phase, where capital now demands sharper strategic clarity and iron discipline?

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General Landscape

Brazil

1. Renewables curtailment in Brazil could rise by up to 300% by 2035

2. Thermal plants led Brazil’s power-mix expansion in H1 2025

3. Petrobras wins two large lots at oil auction in Brazil

4. Brazil's silent revolution in oil: investment overflow takes it to the producers' olympus

5. BYD inaugurates its new factory in Brazil with the production of its first 100% electric vehicle

6. Petrobras to invest USD 5.5 bn in Rio de Janeiro to boost refining and petrochemicals

7. Brazil Expands Renewable Energy by 194 MW in June

8. Brazilian power grid will not support expected renewable expansion until 2035

LATAM

1. Chile's Ministry of Energy plans to process 12 regulations in the coming months

2. 280 MWp Radal Solar project with 200 MW / 1,101 MWh BESS submitted for environmental assessment in Chile

3. In Chile, Pacific Hydro bids for the maintenance of the Desierto de Atacama photovoltaic farm

4. This is the feasibility of nuclear energy in Colombia

5. Actis-backed Orygen to soon start building 94.2-MW solar farm in Peru

6. Jinko ESS, Metlen ink 3-GWh energy storage deal for Europe, Chile

7. GameChange Solar places 715 MWp of solar trackers for eight new projects in Latin America

8. Chile's Electricity Coordinator proposed seven new transmission works in the system planning

9. Ventus surpassed 2.400 MW of renewable energy installed in Latin America and aims for regional expansion

10. Ecuador receives USDm 77 IDB financing for private sector renewable energy projects

11. Argentina facing a new renewable cycle: legal keys, bankability and transmission challenges

12. Colombia's largest solar park to be built in Cesar department

13. BASF agrees PPA with Genneia for the supply of renewable energy for its plants in Argentina

14. Report projects demand for up to 27.000 new workers in Chile's energy value chain

15. In Argentina, photovoltaic power is close to 2 GW installed capacity

16. Solar energy to grow 13% in Latin America by 2025 with Chinese technology

17. Ecopetrol announces the commercial character of Lorito, Colombia's seventh largest field

18. Patria Investments enters the solar energy business in Colombia and will start production in November

19. Chilean government proposes that companies allocate 5% of their investments to social initiatives, as part of a bill to accelerate the energy transition

20. Peru brings solar energy to more than 55.000 rural homes in 20 regions

21. Colombia adjusts conditions for the development of offshore wind projects

22. Argentina facing the energy transition: certainties, challenges and the bet on trust

23. Colombia's gas deficit by 2026 would increase to 20%

24. Colombian hydrocarbon companies closed 2024 with lower revenues and earnings

25. Double renewable energy boost in Peru: San Gaban III (209 MW) and San Martin Solar (252 MW) started operations

26. Solar energy to grow 13% in Latin America by the end of 2025

27. Argentina's Pampa Energía applies for RIGI membership for USDm 426 investment project

28. Buenos Aires could cover 81 % of its total electricity demand with photovoltaics and BESS

29. Tenaris starts construction of its second wind farm in Argentina

30. Hydrogen exports from Latin America will exceed USD 13 bn by 2050

31. Ecuador awards Spanish company Cox eight photovoltaic projects with more than 600 MW and 1,200 MW of battery storage

32. Tenaris breaks ground on 94.5-MW wind farm project in Argentina

33. Cordoba prepares a bidding process with hybrid tariff for solar and bioenergy projects

34. Colombia is revising its regulations to accelerate connection points to the SIN in order to ensure a successful energy transition

35. After the boom, the slowdown: fracking fell sharply in Vaca Muerta

36. Argentina's energy demand plummets: -10.4% in May and three months in the red

37. Argentina, the new magnet for lithium investment? PwC warns: "It's now or never"

38. Record in Vaca Muerta: it already produces almost 6 out of every 10 barrels in the country

39. Argentina is projected as a key player in global oil demand, according to the International Energy Agency

40. TotalEnergies an oil company builds the world's southernmost wind farm in Argentina

41. Onshore wind power growth in S America to slow by 2034, WoodMac says

42. Chile's renewables share drops to 37% in May

43. ContourGlobal accelerates its expansion in Chile with the commissioning of more than 850 MW solar and BESS

44. The Chilean Senate Committee rejected that the PMGD finance electricity subsidies

45. AES Argentina selects Vestas as strategic partner to expand the Vientos Bonaerenses wind power complex

46. Oil, uranium and renewables: Chubut seeks to return to the big leagues

47. Patagonia emerges as capital of green hydrogen

48. Argentina, Chile and Ecuador lead green investment ranking in Latin America

49. 2.25% growth in energy demand in Colombia in May 2025

50. The presence of free natural hydrogen in the subsoil of Colombia was discovered

51. Universidad Católica de Chile's new stadium incorporates a photovoltaic system and 100% renewable energy supply

52. Copec Voltex inaugurates its first RED-standard electro-terminal in southern Chile

53. Mercosur countries reaffirm their regional commitment to natural gas

54. Paraguay and Argentina sign agreement to build gas pipeline to transport energy from Argentina

Mexico

1. Rafiqui promotes the first solar panel and lithium battery recycling plant in Mexico

2. Ecuador receives IDB sovereign guarantee to boost private investment in solar and wind energy

3. Mexico shows progress to be part of the lithium industry

4. Pemex redefines its energy roadmap, but progress is still mixed